The penultimate trading session of 2022 concluded on Thursday with mixed but mostly lower results. Corn prices saw modest declines of around 0.4%, while wheat prices faced more severe cuts of 1.3% to 2.3% after traders locked in some year-end profits. Soybeans bucked the overall trend, holding onto modest gains by the close today.
Between Friday and Monday, most areas east of the Mississippi River will get at least some measurable rain or snow, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The West Coast and western Rocky Mountains will also receive ample moisture during this time, while the Northern and Central Plains should remain relatively dry. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a bit of seasonally wet weather likely for parts of the western Corn Belt and Central Plains between January 5 and January 11, with widespread warmer-than-normal conditions in the central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow pushed 365 points higher in afternoon trading to 33,242, with some analysts arguing that “we were overdue for a rebound.” Energy futures were mixed but mostly lower. Crude oil trended 0.7% lower to $78 per barrel on Chinese demand uncertainty as the country lifts covid restrictions amid an increase in cases. Diesel dropped 1.5%, while gasoline firmed 0.5%. Copper (often viewed as a bellwether for the global economy) was also down 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+5,000), soybeans (+10,000), soymeal (+8,500) and CBOT wheat (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-4,500).
Corn
Corn prices faded slightly lower on some year-end profit-taking as traders digested a disappointing round of ethanol production data today and anticipate a good-but-not-great round of export sales data tomorrow. March futures dropped 3 cents to $6.7975, with May futures down 2 cents to $6.7950.
Corn basis bids eased 2 to 5 cents lower at three Midwestern ethanol plants and dropped 3 cents at an Iowa processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Ethanol production slumped even lower in the week ending December 23, with a daily average of just 963,000 gallons, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. That was the lowest weekly total since early October and also broke a 10-week streak of beating the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark.
Ahead of the next USDA export report, out Friday morning and covering the week through December 22, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 23.6 million and 33.5 million bushels.
Midwest farmers tend to keep a close eye on corn and soybean price trends, but some other commodities are worth watching in 2023 – particularly two that have some big upside potential – according to Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson. Find out why “oats and cotton have room to run” in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Whether or not you attended the Farm Progress Show and/or Husker Harvest Days this summer, you should still make plans to attend the 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit, coming up in just a few short weeks. It’s packed with expert presentations, farmer panels, opportunities for one-of-a-kind peer networking and more. Click here to catch a glimpse of what’s in store and learn how to register.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 156,439 contracts, shifting 8% below Wednesday’s final count of 170,191.
Soybeans
Soybean prices stayed slightly firm on some end-of-year positioning and general export optimism, which led to some light technical buying on Thursday. January futures added 2.75 cents to $15.0925, while March futures picked up 2.25 cents to $15.1650.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Thursday but did ease a penny lower at an Iowa river terminal today.
Prior to tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 18.4 million and 34.9 million bushels in the week ending December 22. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales come in between 125,000 and 320,000 metric tons last week, plus up to 5,000 MT of soyoil sales.
A venture between China’s state-owned grains trader COFCO and state stockpiler Sinograin to manage its substantial grain reserves will officially begin operations in January. The move is intended to improve logistical efficiencies that will ultimately improve food security. China has the world’s largest population and therefore is a major global buyer of most commodities – most notably soybeans.
Dry weather has caused a slowdown in 2022/23 Argentine soybean plantings. Through December 21, just 61% of the crop was in the ground, versus last year’s pace of 77% and the prior five-year average of nearly 80%. As of December 22, 12% of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, with 68% rated fair and the remaining 25% rated poor or very poor.
What are some key issues facing the 2023 crop season? How do you know when your planter really ready to go? What will the January WASDE report reveal? We’ll be answering these questions and more in our next Farm Progress 365 free seasonal sessions, which will be presented as virtual “lunch and learn” content on January 10-12. Click here for more information about the sessions and learn how to register.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 162,785 contracts, sliding moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 195,726.
Wheat
Wheat prices suffered a moderate technical setback on Thursday as the recent weather rally finally sputtered and gave way to some profit-taking, incurring double-digit losses by the close. March Chicago SRW futures dropped 11 cents to $7.7450, March Kansas City HRW futures fell 14.5 cents to $8.6775, and March MGEX spring wheat futures lost 21.5 cents to $9.1250.
Ahead of Friday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 7.3 million and 17.5 million bushels for the week ending December 22.
Take a moment to see what all’s happening around not only Farm Futures, but also all of our sister publications, with veteran farm broadcaster Max Armstrong’s Farm Progress America – a daily look at the industry’s key issues. You can find the latest edition here.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 47,033 CBOT contracts, which was slightly below Wednesday’s final count of 48,476.
| Settlement Prices for Key Commodities | ||||
| High | Low | Last | Change | |
| Corn $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 682.25 | 677.25 | 679.5 | -3 |
| 23-May | 681.75 | 677 | 679 | -3 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1516.25 | 1501.25 | 1508.75 | 2.75 |
| 23-Mar | 1524.25 | 1509 | 1516.25 | 2.25 |
| Soymeal $/ton | ||||
| 23-Mar | 463 | 455.8 | 458.5 | -2.8 |
| Soyoil cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 66.6 | 64.5 | 66.36 | 1.29 |
| Wheat $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 786.5 | 765.5 | 774 | -11 |
| 23-May | 793.5 | 772.5 | 781 | -10.5 |
| KC Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 884 | 861 | 866.5 | -14.5 |
| 23-May | 876.25 | 855.5 | 861.25 | -14.5 |
| MPLS Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 933 | 912 | 914 | -21.5 |
| 23-May | 921.75 | 903.5 | 905.5 | -17.5 |
| Live Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 22-Dec | 158.675 | 157.2 | 157.2 | -0.25 |
| Feeder Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 187.3 | 186 | 186.775 | 0.575 |
| Lean Hogs cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Apr | 96.575 | 95.5 | 95.675 | -0.9 |
| Crude Oil $/barrel | *Energy prices may not represent final settlements | |||
| 23-Feb | 78.82 | 76.79 | 78.36 | -0.6 |
| Diesel | ||||
| 23-Jan | 3.3568 | 3.2433 | 3.312 | -0.0658 |
| Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon | ||||
| 23-Jan | 2.3866 | 2.3041 | 2.3724 | 0.0095 |
| Natural Gas | ||||
| 23-Mar | 4.279 | 4.02 | 4.154 | -0.04 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ||||
| 23-Mar | 104.215 | 103.535 | 103.635 | -0.547 |
| Gold $/ounce | ||||
| 23-Feb | 1827.3 | 1811.2 | 1817.4 | 8.6 |
| Copper | ||||
| 23-Jan | 3.8425 | 3.809 | 3.821 | -0.018 |
| Fertilizer Swaps | (as of 12/23) | |||
| DAP Tampa-index | 645.0 | -47 | ||
| DAP-New Orleans | 680.7 | -24.8 | ||
| Urea-New Orleans | 502.1 | -13.78 | ||
| Urea-Middle East | 548.0 | -14.5 | ||
| Urea-Black Sea | 585.0 | 35 | ||
| UAN (32%) New Orleans | 512.6 | -77.16 | ||
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