Grain prices were mixed but mostly lower on Tuesday as traders await the next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from USDA, out in two short days. Corn prices managed meager gains, while soybeans turned in a mixed performance and wheat contracts tumbled as much as 2.25% lower today.
Most areas east of the Mississippi River will get at least some rain and/or snow between Wednesday and Saturday, with the notable exception of Iowa, which should remain completely dry during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts widespread warmer and wetter-than-normal conditions for most of the central U.S. between January 17 and January 23.
On Wall St., the Dow trended 111 points higher in afternoon trading to 33,629 as investors await another round of inflation data and corporate earnings reports due out later this week. Energy futures were also in the green this afternoon. Crude oil was up 0.75% to $75 per barrel, while diesel climbed 3% higher and gasoline firmed more than 1.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately as well.
On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+1,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-1,000), soybeans (-500), soymeal (-2,500) and CBOT wheat (-1,000).
Corn
Corn prices tested moderate gains at times on Tuesday but mostly evaporated by the close. Still prices improved slightly thanks to some net technical buying today. March futures added 2.25 cents to $6.55, with May futures up 1.5 cents to $6.5450.
Corn basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did move 3 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and 5 cents lower at an Iowa processor today.
On Thursday, farmers will get “a vision of the past, present and future” with USDA’s next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, according to grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “The blizzard of numbers is known for producing market-moving surprises, with a wide-ranging collection of what was, what is, and what could be,” he notes. Find out what Knorr will be watching for in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Speaking of WASDE, ahead of that report, analysts expect corn quarterly stocks as of December 1 to be 11.153 billion bushels, which is moderately below year-ago totals of 11.642 billion bushels. Analysts also think updated production data will show average yields of 172.5 bushels per acre for a total production of 13.933 billion bushels.
Whether or not you attended the Farm Progress Show and/or Husker Harvest Days last summer, you should still make plans to attend the 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit, coming up next week! It’s packed with expert presentations, farmer panels, opportunities for one-of-a-kind peer networking and more. Click here to catch a glimpse of what’s in store and learn how to register.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s corn exports in January will reach 197.8 million bushels. That’s 16% above the group’s prior estimate from a week ago.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU corn imports during the 2022/23 marketing year are nearly doubling last year’s pace so far after reaching 595.2 million bushels through January 6.
South Korea purchased 2.7 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from Argentina or Brazil, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in early April.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 285,529 contracts, trending 61% above Monday’s final count of 177,800.
Soybeans
Soybean prices were affected by some uneven technical maneuvering that left nearby contracts moderately higher, while the rest slid slightly lower. January futures added 6.5 cents to $15.10, while March futures faded 2.75 cents lower to $14.8575.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday but did tilt 10 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and 3 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 6.4 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Prior to Thursday’s WASDE report, analysts expect USDA to show soybean quarterly stocks at 3.132 billion bushels as of December 1, which is modestly below year-ago totals of 3.152 billion bushels. Updated production information is expected to show average yields at 50.3 bushels per acre for a total production of 4.362 billion bushels.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year are trending moderately below year-ago levels after reaching 212.7 million bushels through January 6. EU soymeal imports are also down year-over-year after reaching 8.26 million metric tons during the same period.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports in January will reach 72.3 million bushels, which is moderately higher than its last estimate from a week ago. Anec also expect to see Brazilian soymeal exports reach 1.403 million metric tons this month.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 166,274 contracts, firming moderately above Monday’s final count of 137,084.
Wheat
Wheat prices spilled lower after lingering concerns about export demand led to another round of technical selling on Tuesday. Winter wheat contracts incurred double-digit cuts, with March Chicago SRW futures falling 13 cents to $7.2850 and March Kansas City HRW futures losing 19.25 cents to $8.0925. MGEX spring wheat contracts tracked moderately lower, with March futures down 8.75 cents to $8.9325.
Ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report, analysts think USDA will show wheat stocks falling from 1.378 billion bushels in December 2021 down to 1.344 billion bushels by December 2022.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year are running slightly ahead of last year’s pace so far after reaching 623.5 million bushels through January 6. EU barley exports are moderately below last year’s pace, meantime, with a total of 134.6 million bushels over the same period.
Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 3.3 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 45% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between February 21 and March 20.
In Kansas, the nation’s top wheat production state, just 19% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent through January 1. Another 32% is rated fair, with the remaining 49% rated poor or very poor. Topsoil moisture conditions are also worrisome, with 69% rated short or very short.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 87,517 CBOT contracts, which is moderately above Monday’s final count of 69,091.
| Settlement Prices for Key Commodities | ||||
| High | Low | Last | Change | |
| Corn $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 664 | 648.25 | 655 | 2.25 |
| 23-May | 663 | 648.25 | 654.5 | 2.25 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1518.5 | 1501.5 | 1510 | 6.5 |
| 23-Mar | 1500.75 | 1474 | 1485 | -2.75 |
| Soymeal $/ton | ||||
| 23-Mar | 475.7 | 466.1 | 468.9 | -1.7 |
| Soyoil cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 63.62 | 62.52 | 62.57 | -0.57 |
| Wheat $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 742.5 | 720.5 | 731 | -13 |
| 23-May | 751 | 729.5 | 739.5 | -12.75 |
| KC Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 828.5 | 803.25 | 811.75 | -19.25 |
| 23-May | 825 | 800.25 | 809 | -18.25 |
| MPLS Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 905.5 | 891.75 | 894.5 | -8.75 |
| 23-May | 901.5 | 887.5 | 891.5 | -7.75 |
| Live Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Feb | 158.825 | 157.55 | 157.85 | 0.1 |
| Feeder Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 187.275 | 185.75 | 186.625 | 0.325 |
| Lean Hogs cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Apr | 90.85 | 89.375 | 89.575 | -1.225 |
| Crude Oil $/barrel | *Energy prices may not represent final settlements | |||
| 23-Feb | 75.92 | 73.84 | 75.22 | 0.59 |
| Diesel | ||||
| 23-Feb | 3.1559 | 3.0099 | 3.1303 | 0.0943 |
| Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon | ||||
| 23-Feb | 2.3485 | 2.2797 | 2.3307 | 0.0378 |
| Natural Gas | ||||
| 23-Mar | 3.549 | 3.286 | 3.292 | -0.271 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ||||
| 23-Mar | 103.25 | 102.77 | 102.985 | 0.242 |
| Gold $/ounce | ||||
| 23-Feb | 1885.2 | 1872 | 1872.4 | -0.3 |
| Copper | ||||
| 23-Jan | 4.065 | 4.0085 | 4.065 | 0.0465 |
| Fertilizer Swaps | (as of 1/6) | |||
| DAP Tampa-index | 645.0 | -47 | ||
| DAP-New Orleans | 680.7 | -24.8 | ||
| Urea-New Orleans | 502.1 | -13.78 | ||
| Urea-Middle East | 548.0 | -14.5 | ||
| Urea-Black Sea | 585.0 | 35 | ||
| UAN (32%) New Orleans | 512.6 | -77.16 | ||
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