NOTE: Grain markets will be closed on Monday, December 26, in observance of Christmas. Markets will reopen at 8:30 a.m. on Tuesday. Be sure to come back to Farm Futures then for our next round of agricultural news and analysis.
Today was the last session that grain markets were open before Christmas, and prices made moderate inroads after some technical buying on Friday. CBOT wheat contracts found the biggest boost, climbing more than 1.5% by the close. Other wheat contracts saw gains of around 1.25%. Corn and soybeans were in on the action as well, each firming around 0.75% today.
Be careful if you have holiday travel in store! Recent inclement weather has wreaked havoc across a large swath of the country. Here’s a snapshot of the various problems, including blizzard and winter storm warnings, wind chill and hard freeze warning, and much more. Click here for a full look at this map.
Meantime, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to warmer-than-normal weather between December 30 and January 5, with seasonally wet weather also likely for the entire central U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow firmed 83 points in afternoon trading to 33,111. Arguably the biggest financial headline today is that the U.S. House passed the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill early this afternoon, which will now head to President Biden’s desk to sign into law. The bill fully funds the federal government through September 2023, which is the end of the current fiscal year.
Energy futures were also on the rise, with crude oil up more than 2.5% this afternoon to $79 per barrel. Gasoline jumped more than 5.5% higher, with diesel up 4.75%. Several Gulf Coast refineries were idled due to the current cold snap. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-1,500), soybeans (-5,500), soymeal (-2,000), soyoil (-1,500) and CBOT wheat (-2,500).
Corn
Corn prices trended moderately higher after a flash sale to Mexico announced this morning triggered some technical buying on Friday. March futures added 5.5 cents to $6.66, with May futures up 4.75 cents to $6.65.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm on Friday after improving 2 to 15 cents across four Midwestern locations today.
Private exporters announced the sale of 5.9 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
If you still have a significant amount of grain in the bin, Naomi Blohm notes that there is a strong seasonal tendency for March corn futures to rally into July. “Pinning a market price high is nearly impossible, and with so many swirling geo-political activities, constant weather variables, and general supply/demand scenarios unfolding, marketing your grain in 2023 may prove to be tricky,” she says. “I encourage you, however, to not fall into the trap of ‘store and ignore.’” Blohm offers five pieces of advice for properly timing sales in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Live events are back! If you missed the Farm Progress Show and/or Husker Harvest Days this summer, you could still make plans to attend the 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit, coming up in just a few short weeks. Click here to catch a glimpse of what’s in store and learn how to register.
Because Christmas and New Year’s Day both fall on a Sunday this holiday season, they will be observed as federal holidays the following Mondays. Because of that, regularly scheduled USDA reports will be delayed in the weeks of December 25 and January 1. The agency’s next two export inspection reports will now drop on Dec. 27 and Jan. 3, and its next two export sales reports will come out on Dec. 30 and Jan. 6.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 144,468 contracts, which was moderately above Thursday’s final count of 106,774.
Soybeans
Soybean prices grabbed double-digit gains following a round of technical buying on Friday that was partly spurred by export optimism. January futures rose 12.25 cents to $14.80, with March futures up 13.75 cents to $14.8575.
Soybean basis bids were unchanged across the central U.S. on Friday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.6 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Brazilian farmers are hoping for bumper soybean and corn crops for the 2022/23 season. Current Conab projections expect soybean plantings to climb to 107.26 million acres for a production of 5.64 billion bushels. Corn plantings should reach 55.19 million acres, for a total production of 4.95 billion bushels. Matthew Kruse, president of Commstock Investments, took a closer look at the numbers and the implications of crops this size in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
It’s been a weird, wild year, to say the least. David Kohl takes a look back at highlights from 2022 and explains why 2023 “will be the pivotal year that trade moves from globalization to regionalization” – and how that could affect your bottom line – in his latest Road Warrior blog. Click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 137,448 contracts, sliding moderately below Thursday’s final count of 168,122.
Wheat
Wheat prices earned healthy gains on lingering concerns that the latest cold snap in the Midwest and Plains will lead to some winterkill issues for the 2022/23 winter wheat crop. Spillover strength from other commodities lent some additional support today. March Chicago SRW futures gained 12.25 cents to $7.7450, March Kansas City HRW futures added 10 cents to $8.76, and March MGEX spring wheat futures rose 12.75 cents to $9.35.
If you haven’t been to FarmFutures.com in a while, head on over to “7 ag stories you might have missed” to quickly catch up on the industry’s top headlines. Our latest batch of content includes updates on soaring U.S. farmland values, a massive Michigan grain fire, Christmastime reindeer trivia and more. Click here to get started.
Officials in India are estimating that the country’s wheat production will climb to 4.115 billion bushels, due to favorable weather conditions and increased plantings of around 3.707 million acres. India is one of the world’s top wheat producers, but the vast majority of that supply is consumed domestically rather than entering the export market.
India also announced it will spend the equivalent of $24.2 billion USD to provide food grains at no cost for more than 800 million poor citizens. The program is a conglomeration of two prior programs that provided pandemic relief in the form of free or subsidized food grain.
Preliminary volume estimates fell to 31,022 CBOT contracts, down 37% from Thursday’s final count of 49,163.
| Settlement Prices for Key Commodities | ||||
| High | Low | Last | Change | |
| Corn $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 667.75 | 659.25 | 666.25 | 5.5 |
| 23-May | 667 | 658.75 | 665 | 5.5 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1484 | 1466.25 | 1479 | 12.25 |
| 23-Mar | 1489 | 1470.5 | 1484.5 | 13.75 |
| Soymeal $/ton | ||||
| 23-Mar | 454.9 | 446.9 | 451.3 | 2.4 |
| Soyoil cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 65.36 | 63.9 | 64.65 | 0.53 |
| Wheat $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 778 | 758 | 776 | 12.25 |
| 23-May | 784.75 | 767 | 782.5 | 9.5 |
| KC Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 877.5 | 863.25 | 874.75 | 10 |
| 23-May | 871.5 | 857.75 | 869 | 10 |
| MPLS Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 935 | 920.25 | 931.75 | 12.75 |
| 23-May | 924 | 910.5 | 921 | 12 |
| Live Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 22-Dec | 157.175 | 155.75 | 156.4 | 0.5 |
| Feeder Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 187.05 | 186.175 | 186.925 | 0.475 |
| Lean Hogs cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Apr | 96.1 | 94.6 | 95.3 | -0.725 |
| Crude Oil $/barrel | *Energy prices may not represent final settlements | |||
| 23-Feb | 80.33 | 77.98 | 79.66 | 2.17 |
| Diesel | ||||
| 23-Jan | 3.2999 | 3.116 | 3.2616 | 0.1302 |
| Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon | ||||
| 23-Jan | 2.3877 | 2.2497 | 2.3786 | 0.1298 |
| Natural Gas | ||||
| 23-Feb | 5.139 | 4.779 | 4.979 | 0.051 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ||||
| 23-Mar | 104.235 | 103.815 | 104.065 | -0.062 |
| Gold $/ounce | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1805.5 | 1793.2 | 1795.9 | 8.9 |
| Copper | ||||
| 22-Dec | 3.805 | 3.76 | 3.805 | 0.0535 |
| Fertilizer Swaps | (as of 12/16) | |||
| DAP Tampa-index | 645.0 | -47 | ||
| DAP-New Orleans | 680.7 | -24.8 | ||
| Urea-New Orleans | 502.1 | -13.78 | ||
| Urea-Middle East | 548.0 | -14.5 | ||
| Urea-Black Sea | 585.0 | 35 | ||
| UAN (32%) New Orleans | 512.6 | -77.16 | ||
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