It was a mostly quiet day in the grain markets Wednesday as traders are holding out for fresh signals when USDA’s next World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report comes out Thursday morning. A modest amount of short-covering occurred, which lifted prices to various degrees. Corn priced shifted 0.25% higher, while soybeans added 0.5%. Gains in wheat were variable, with some contracts up more than 1% today.
The latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA shows part of the Midwest could see some additional rain and/or snow between Thursday and Sunday, with the eastern Corn Belt most likely to see the largest totals. NOAA’s latest 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather likely for the entire Midwest and Plains between January 18 and January 24, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the eastern half of the country.
On Wall St., the Dow improved by 205 points in afternoon trading to 33,909 with investors placing bets that the next round of inflation data, out Thursday, will show it slowing. Energy futures made substantial inroads, with crude oil up more than 3.25% this afternoon to $77 per barrel. Diesel firmed 2.5%, while gasoline jumped 4.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+1,500) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-1,000), soymeal (-2,000), soyoil (-2,000) and CBOT wheat (-2,500).
Corn
Corn prices benefited from some light technical buying that lifted prices around 0.25% higher on Wednesday. March futures added 1.5 cents to $6.5650, while May futures picked up a penny to reach $6.5550.
Corn basis bids tracked 4 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.
Ethanol production rebounded somewhat but remained relatively disappointing for the week ending January 6, with a daily average production of 943,000 barrels. It was also the third consecutive week that the daily average failed to meet the 1-million-barrel benchmark. Ethanol stocks slid 3% lower last week.
Prior to tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts are expecting the agency to show corn sales ranging between 11.8 million and 42.3 million bushels for the week ending January 5.
Whether or not you attended the Farm Progress Show and/or Husker Harvest Days last summer, you should still make plans to attend the 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit, coming up next week! It’s packed with expert presentations, farmer panels, opportunities for one-of-a-kind peer networking and more. Click here to catch a glimpse of what’s in store and learn how to register.
It’s Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland’s favorite time of year. “While we are still over a month away from USDA’s March 31 Acreage Intentions report, there are several clues in the market that provide insights about how acreage could shake out this year.” Holland digs into the details in her latest E-corn-omics blog – click here to learn more.
Brazil could see a record-breaking volume of corn exports in January after already booking more than 39 million bushels to China. Trade group Anec is estimating total corn exports this month could reach 197.8 million bushels. Meantime, the Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult estimates that the country’s total corn production in 2022/23 could reach a record 5.153 billion bushels.
Taiwan purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn from the United States in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in March and April.
Grain traveling the nation’s railways reached 22,089 carloads last week, which is a 1.1% improvement over 2022 so far.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 181,611 contracts, falling well short of Tuesday’s final count of 285,529.
Soybeans
Soybean prices moved moderately higher on Wednesday as traders remain somewhat focused on drought in Argentina while they wait for fresh USDA supply and demand data tomorrow morning. January futures added 5 cents to $15.15, with March futures up 9 cents to $14.94.
Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. on Wednesday but did trend 2 cents lower at an Indiana processor while firming a penny at an Illinois river terminal today.
Private exporters announced the sale of 4.6 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/23 marketing year, which began September 1.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show soybean sales ranging between 18.4 million and 49.6 million bushels for the week ending January 5. Analysts also think USDA will show soymeal sales last week ranging between 75,000 and 350,000 metric tons, plus up to 22,000 MT of soyoil sales.
Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult expects the country to harvest a record-breaking amount of soybeans for the 2022/23 season despite some dry conditions in southern states, with a new estimate of 5.636 billion bushels. The group will be touring the country soon for additional in-field analysis.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase nearly 700,000 bushels of food-grade, non-GMO soybeans from optional origins, which closes on January 19. The soybeans are for arrival between February and April of 2024.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 123,137 contracts, sliding moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 166,274.
Wheat
Wheat prices saw gains of as much as 1.25% after traders engaged in some technical buying and short-covering ahead of Thursday morning’s WASDE report. March Chicago SRW futures added 8 cents to $7.39, March Kansas City HRW futures rose 10.5 cents to $8.2225, and March MGEX spring wheat futures gained 6 cents to $9.0050.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show wheat sales ranging between 2.8 million and 22.0 million bushels for the week ending January 5.
South Korea purchased 2.4 million bushels of animal feed wheat, likely sourced from either the United States or Australia, in a private deal that recently closed. The grain is for arrival in late June.
Russia, which became Pakistan’s single largest wheat supplier in 2022, has sent another 2.2 million bushels that arrived earlier this week. The grain will be sent to areas most affected by the devastating flooding that occurred last year.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 61,327 CBOT contracts, tracking moderately below Tuesday’s final count of 87,517.
| Settlement Prices for Key Commodities | ||||
| High | Low | Last | Change | |
| Corn $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 659 | 652.75 | 656 | 1.5 |
| 23-May | 658.5 | 652.25 | 655.25 | 1.5 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1520.5 | 1510 | 1515 | 5 |
| 23-Mar | 1500 | 1482 | 1493 | 9 |
| Soymeal $/ton | ||||
| 23-Mar | 478.3 | 468.2 | 474.6 | 5.9 |
| Soyoil cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 63.56 | 62.02 | 62.11 | -0.51 |
| Wheat $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 742.25 | 724.5 | 740 | 8 |
| 23-May | 749.75 | 733.5 | 748.25 | 7.75 |
| KC Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 823 | 805.25 | 822.25 | 10.5 |
| 23-May | 820 | 803.25 | 819.25 | 10 |
| MPLS Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 901.5 | 890 | 899.25 | 6 |
| 23-May | 897.5 | 887 | 896 | 5 |
| Live Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Feb | 157.95 | 157.05 | 157.875 | 0.125 |
| Feeder Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 186.65 | 184.85 | 185.425 | -1.075 |
| Lean Hogs cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Apr | 89.575 | 88.025 | 88.35 | -1.175 |
| Crude Oil $/barrel | *Energy prices may not represent final settlements | |||
| 23-Feb | 77.84 | 74.31 | 77.63 | 2.51 |
| Diesel | ||||
| 23-Feb | 3.2488 | 3.0944 | 3.2006 | 0.0649 |
| Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon | ||||
| 23-Feb | 2.4408 | 2.3005 | 2.4346 | 0.1069 |
| Natural Gas | ||||
| 23-Mar | 3.42 | 3.137 | 3.37 | 0.056 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ||||
| 23-Mar | 103.23 | 102.85 | 102.985 | 0.005 |
| Gold $/ounce | ||||
| 23-Feb | 1890.9 | 1870.9 | 1875.4 | 3.8 |
| Copper | ||||
| 23-Jan | 4.174 | 4.106 | 4.174 | 0.107 |
| Fertilizer Swaps | (as of 1/6) | |||
| DAP Tampa-index | 645.0 | -47 | ||
| DAP-New Orleans | 680.7 | -24.8 | ||
| Urea-New Orleans | 502.1 | -13.78 | ||
| Urea-Middle East | 548.0 | -14.5 | ||
| Urea-Black Sea | 585.0 | 35 | ||
| UAN (32%) New Orleans | 512.6 | -77.16 | ||
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!