Better-than-expected rains in Argentina over the weekend, coupled with lackluster export inspection data for U.S. grain, was more than enough reason for traders to engage in a round of technical selling and profit taking on Tuesday, which was the first session of 2023. Soybeans suffered the biggest setback after facing a nearly 2% decline. Corn prices faded 1% lower. Most wheat contracts were down between 1.5% and 1.75% today.
Most areas east of the Mississippi River will see at least some additional rain and/or snow between Wednesday and Saturday, while areas farther west should remain dry during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA.
On Wall St., the Dow slumped 217 points lower in afternoon trading to 32,929 as investors reassessed the latest inflation and interest rate trends, both of which remain at worrisome levels for now. Energy futures sank significantly lower on global demand concerns. Crude oil fell nearly 4% in afternoon trading to $77 per barrel. Diesel dropped more than 6%, with gasoline down nearly 5%. The U.S. Dollar firmed significantly.
Last Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of soybeans (+3,500), soymeal (+7,000) and CBOT wheat (+7,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-500) and soyoil (-5,000).
Corn
Corn prices followed other commodities lower on Tuesday on the heels of a bearish grain export inspection report, with spillover weakness from soybeans and wheat applying plenty of downward pressure as well. March and May futures each dropped 6.25 cents to close at $6.7225 and $6.7175, respectively.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm across the central U.S. after improving 1 to 5 cents at three Midwestern locations on Tuesday.
Corn export inspections for the week ending December 29 saw a moderate week-over-week decline to 26.3 million bushels. That was also on the very low end of trade estimates, which ranged between 25.6 million and 35.4 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 11.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are still considerably below last year’s pace so far, with 377.3 million bushels.
Brazilian governmental data shows that the country’s corn exports in December nearly doubled year-ago levels after climbing to 252.4 million bushels last month.
The latest data from the European Commission shows that 2022/23 EU corn imports are roughly doubling year-over-year sales so far, with 577.5 million bushels through January 1. The grain primarily was sourced from Brazil and Ukraine, with Canada, Serbia and South Africa rounding out the top five destinations.
The Ag Economy Barometer from Purdue University / CME Group featured the best readings for 2022 in December after moving 24 points higher to 126 (any number over 100 is considered net positive). James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the stronger Current Conditions Index could be attributed to producers estimating their 2022 farm income following harvest. Click here to catch up on more results from the latest survey.
Whether or not you attended the Farm Progress Show and/or Husker Harvest Days this summer, you should still make plans to attend the 2023 Farm Futures Business Summit, coming up later this month. It’s packed with expert presentations, farmer panels, opportunities for one-of-a-kind peer networking and more. Click here to catch a glimpse of what’s in store and learn how to register.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 210,505 contracts, trending moderately higher than Friday’s final count of 128,163.
Soybeans
Soybean prices incurred heavy losses after yield-friendly rains in Argentina and disappointing export inspection data triggered plenty of technical selling and profit-taking today. January futures tumbled 30 cents lower to $14.8925, with March futures down 29.5 cents to $14.9450.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. on Tuesday after moving as much as 10 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and as much as 10 cents lower at a Nebraska processor today.
Soybean export inspections last week reached 53.8 million bushels. That was moderately below the prior week’s total and completely below the entire range of analyst estimates, which came in between 55.1 million and 68.5 million bushels. China was by far the No. 1 destination, with 33.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year remain slightly behind last year’s pace, with 1.052 billion bushels.
European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 202.8 million bushels through January 1, which is 16% below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also down slightly year-over-year, with 8.29 million metric tons during the same period.
Brazil’s soybean exports in December reached 72.4 million bushels, according to the latest available governmental data. That’s a year-over-year decline of more than 25%.
A record amount of farm wealth may transfer hands over the next 10 to 15 years, according to Mike Downey, co-owner of Next Gen Ag Advocates. “Are we as an industry ready for this?” he inquires. “Are you and your estate planning in order?” Downey serves up a few suggestions to add to your estate plan checkup list in his latest More than Dirt column – click here to learn more.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 177,701 contracts, which is moderately above Friday’s final count of 136,957.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mostly down 1.5% to 1.75% after a round of technical selling on Tuesday. Spillover weakness from other commodities, a lackluster set of export inspection data and a strengthening U.S. Dollar were all in play today. March Chicago SRW futures fell 12.25 cents to $7.7950, March Kansas City HRW futures dropped 16.5 cents to $8.7150, and March MGEX spring wheat futures also lost 16.5 cents to $9.2225.
Wheat export inspections were lackluster last week after only reaching 3.1 million bushels. That was below the entire range of trade guesses, which came in between 9.2 million and 16.5 million bushels. Mexico accounted for more than half of that total, with 2.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are modestly behind last year’s pace so far, with 435.0 million bushels.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year are 6% above last year’s pace so far after reaching 614.0 million bushels through January 1. Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia are the top five buyers. EU barley exports are down 43% year-over-year, meantime, with 128.6 million bushels.
Ukraine’s 2022/23 wheat exports are down 47% year-over-year so far, after shipping out 308 million bushels since the beginning of July. In contrast, Ukrainian corn exports are up nearly 16% year-over-year, with 493 million bushels during the same period.
Preliminary volume estimates were for 66,837 CBOT contracts, which was 31% above Friday’s final count of 50,835.
| Settlement Prices for Key Commodities | ||||
| High | Low | Last | Change | |
| Corn $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 681.25 | 668 | 670.5 | -6.25 |
| 23-May | 680.5 | 667.75 | 670.25 | -6.25 |
| Soybeans | ||||
| 23-Jan | 1523.25 | 1485 | 1487.25 | -30 |
| 23-Mar | 1529 | 1490 | 1492.25 | -29.5 |
| Soymeal $/ton | ||||
| 23-Mar | 472.2 | 461 | 465.1 | -5.9 |
| Soyoil cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 65.4 | 63.12 | 63.2 | -0.66 |
| Wheat $/bushel | ||||
| 23-Mar | 794.5 | 769.75 | 775.5 | -12.5 |
| 23-May | 800.5 | 776.75 | 782.75 | -12.25 |
| KC Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 888 | 862 | 869.25 | -16.5 |
| 23-May | 881.5 | 857 | 864.5 | -17 |
| MPLS Wheat | ||||
| 23-Mar | 938 | 915.25 | 938.75 | -16.5 |
| 23-May | 926.5 | 906.5 | 926.5 | -14.25 |
| Live Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Feb | 158.15 | 156.65 | 157.025 | -0.875 |
| Feeder Cattle cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Mar | 186.275 | 184.3 | 184.825 | -1.4 |
| Lean Hogs cents/lb | ||||
| 23-Apr | 95.4 | 92.925 | 93.775 | -1.525 |
| Crude Oil $/barrel | *Energy prices may not represent final settlements | |||
| 23-Feb | 81.5 | 76.6 | 76.97 | -3.29 |
| Diesel | ||||
| 23-Feb | 3.3322 | 3.0755 | 3.0854 | -0.2096 |
| Unleaded Gasoline $/gallon | ||||
| 23-Feb | 2.5057 | 2.3484 | 2.3574 | -0.1209 |
| Natural Gas | ||||
| 23-Mar | 4.005 | 3.62 | 3.674 | -0.43 |
| U.S. Dollar Index | ||||
| 23-Mar | 104.65 | 103.235 | 104.28 | 1.011 |
| Gold $/ounce | ||||
| 23-Feb | 1856.6 | 1831.3 | 1837.2 | 17.5 |
| Copper | ||||
| 23-Jan | 3.842 | 3.7615 | 3.766 | -0.0395 |
| Fertilizer Swaps | (as of 12/30) | |||
| DAP Tampa-index | 645.0 | -47 | ||
| DAP-New Orleans | 680.7 | -24.8 | ||
| Urea-New Orleans | 502.1 | -13.78 | ||
| Urea-Middle East | 548.0 | -14.5 | ||
| Urea-Black Sea | 585.0 | 35 | ||
| UAN (32%) New Orleans | 512.6 | -77.16 | ||
Get our top content delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!